5:59 v originále: What a Trump return would mean for Europe

The battle for the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is attracting attention far beyond the United States. European governments and publics are particularly interested in how the outcome of the November elections will affect U.S. support for Ukraine and Washington’s approach to the transatlantic partnership. What do we know about how Donald Trump and Kamala Harris view America's role in the world?

For more than two and a half years, Ukraine has been resisting Russian aggression. But Ukrainian courage alone is not enough, and Western support is essential. Its importance was underscored when internal political disputes in the United States led to the suspension of U.S. aid for several months. It is no surprise, then, that Europeans are among the many closely watching the fate of the race for the White House.

„There is real concern that a Trump administration might just cut off all aid to Ukraine,“ says American journalist Julia Ioffe in an interview for a 5:59 news podcast.

Former Republican President Donald Trump, who is currently seeking reelection, has already steered U.S. foreign policy from 2017 to 2021. However, Ioffe points out that there is no certainty about what Trump would do during his potential second term.

„We don’t really know (how U.S. foreign policy would be conducted in his potential second term). In part because Trump doesn't want us to know. And in part because he doesn’t know himself. He loves to be unpredictable, to do things that are unexpected,“ she adds.

Listen to the full interview with Julia Ioffe for the 5:59 news podcast in the English version:

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The recent prisoner swap between the West and Moscow has highlighted an important aspect of Donald Trump’s character. In a statement on social media, the Republican politician accused the Biden administration of paying the Russian side for the exchange. According to the American journalist, this shows that for Trump „everything is kind of about money“.

Trump's approach is transactional. „He doesn’t understand still that a lot of it (what made the prisoner swap possible) was the relationships that the Biden administration and previous administrations had built with these countries. (…) He doesn’t understand that (in foreign policy) sometimes you have to put in a lot of work and a lot of resources into a relationship that might not pay off for ten years,“ Ioffe says.

Then there is Trump’s unexpected rival, current U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. She had little foreign policy experience when she took office in the Biden administration. But that was nearly four years ago, and the time since has been filled with one international crisis after another, giving Harris some first-hand experience. Still, according to Ioffe, there are many unknowns about what Kamala Harris' foreign policy would look like if she is elected.

But we have some clues. „People in Biden’s world who have dealt with her as well are like ‚she'll probably be very similar to Biden with maybe ten twenty percent difference‘. Where that will be, how that will be? We still don’t know. But I imagine on things like Ukraine, NATO, she would most likely stay the course of the Biden administration,“ the American journalist suggests.

What would U.S.-Russia relations look like under a Harris or Trump administration? And what do European leaders expect from the race for the White House? Listen to the full interview using the audio player at the top of the article.