5:59 v originále: Lukashenko, Belarus and Putin's war against Ukraine

Belarus appears to be one step closer to joining Russia in its war effort against Ukraine. The country's strongman Alexandr Lukashenko is under growing pressure from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin to support his ‚special military operation‘ more robustly. What would be the political cost of an open involvement in the war for Lukashenko?

About 9000 russian troops arrived in Belarus earlier this week. They should be part of the new military ‚grouping‘ Russian president Vladimir Putin and his Belarusian counterpart Alexandr Lukashenko agreed on. Officials in Minsk said the Russian army remains in the country „just for defense“.

„This might be a provocation. Lukashenko and Putin are trying to create a threat to Ukraine again from the north, from the territory of Belarus, to force the Ukrainian army to regroup,“ says Hanna Liubakova, journalist from Belarus and non-resident fellow of the Atlantic Council.

However, nobody is able to tell if the threat is real. „The answer would be like betting in a casino. We don't know, nobody knows about that,“ she quips and adds that Lukashenko doesn't enjoy much support among Belarusians.

Despite Lukashenko's fence-sitting regarding Russia's aggression against Ukraine, Liubakova points out, that he should also be considered a war criminal: „Offering the territory of a country to attack another country is a co-agression, this is explained in all United Nations documents.“

What could be further expected from Lukashenko's leadership? Belarusian journalist says it largely depends on Putin. „I think that weaker Putin means weaker Lukashenko and vice versa. (…) Lukashenko has three legs of power: law enforcement, officials and Putin. If we destroy one leg, that will provoke also instability among the rest.“

How much influence has the sizeable Belarusian exile on the matters in their homeland? How do people in Belarus perceive their country's role in the Russian war against Ukraine - two years after mass protests against Lukashenko's fraudulent election victory and his entire regime? Listen to the whole interview via audio player at the top of the article.