5:59 v originále: Gideon Rachman on ICC and conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine

The request by the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court for the issuance of arrest warrants for top Israeli officials and leaders of the Palestinian Hamas movement over the Gaza war has sparked a wave of reactions and a debate about the potential consequences for the conflict itself. What’s going to happen next? What will be the consequences of the court’s move? And how does the conflict in Gaza affect the war in Ukraine? A conversation with Gideon Rachman, chief foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times.

Last week, International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Khan requested arrest warrants for leaders of the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Khan cited the severe and visible consequences of using starvation as a method of warfare and other attacks on Gaza’s civilian population. His appeal is backed by interviews with survivors who described the „indescribable pain” inflicted by the attackers’ extraordinary cruelty.

Gideon Rachman, a foreign affairs commentator for the Financial Times, explains in the 5:59 podcast that the impact of this move is still unclear. The thirty-member judicial panel of the ICC will only consider the request in the coming months. „Obviously it's a huge public relations blow to Israel,” Rachman said.

Listen to the full interview with Gideon Rachman for the 5:59 podcast in the English version:

Despite this, Netanyahu is unlikely to lose his position as prime minister due to the potential charges. In fact, the situation may have bolstered his standing. Netanyahu has managed to convince at least some Israelis that the proceedings at the Hague are not just an attack on him but on the entire country.

European Pressure and Recognition of Palestine

The mood in Israel is also being strained by pressure from several European countries. Ireland, Spain, and Norway announced last Wednesday their recognition of Palestinian statehood, a stance sharply condemned by Israel.

„I think that post Hamas attack of October the 7th, the constituency for the two state solution in Israel is down to about ten percent of the public. There’s just not the trust there. And when the Israelis believe that this is an issue of national survival or even personal survival, I think they're not going to compromise on the two-state solution,” Rachman explains in 5:59 podcast and points out that the two-state solution and the peace process is pushed forward by the administration of US President Joe Biden, a traditional ally of Israel.

US-Israel Relations Under Scrutiny

The United States has recently found itself at odds with Israel on several issues, however. For example, it recently restricted certain arms shipments to the Israeli military, particularly heavy bombs, due to disagreement with Israel's conduct in the Rafah military operation. The US has also long pressured Israel to address the humanitarian situation in Gaza.

Nonetheless, according to Gideon Rachman, the US has a deeply rooted instinct to support Israel. As he notes, the US is prepared to disagree with and even pressure Israel on certain issues. But when it appears that Israel is being cornered, the US will rush to its aid, suggests Rachman.

The Conflict in Ukraine and Global Implications

The Hamas-Israel conflict is not the only one closely monitored by the US and other Western nations, which support Ukraine in an ongoing war initiated by Russia. According to Gideon Rachman, the escalating situation in the Middle East has affected their approach to the war in Ukraine.

„Obviously it’s a tragedy in its own terms, but it disrupts the approach to the world because it sucks in resources and time,” Rachman noted. The conflict in Israel is also depriving Ukraine of ammunition needed in its fight against Russia.

Amid these conflicts, a struggle is underway for global influence. This year, this battle is intensifying in the US with its presidential election, which will have significant implications both for the Middle East and Ukraine. For more insights on the current geopolitical situation, the impact of major conflicts and the resilience of democracies under authoritarian pressure, listen to the full 5:59 podcast at the top of this article.